Twitter (TWTR) : Q315 Earnings Whisper

Social networking microblogging service Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2015 results after the market close on Tuesday. Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $0.05 and revenue of $559.68 million. That would be $0.02 lower the $0.07 per share posted last quarter and $0.04 higher the $0.01 posted in the Q314. Revenue is projected to be $198.68 million higher than the $361 million posted in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, reports a whisper number of $0.06 per share.

As a quick reminder, TWTR reported Q215 EPS of $0.07, $0.03 better than the Street’s consensus estimate of $0.04. Revenue increased 74.68% year-over-year to $545 million versus the $481.28 million consensus.

In advance of Twitter’s Q3 earnings today, we have some key data points, courtesy of Verto Analytics:

  • In August 2015, Twitter websites and mobile apps (Twitter, Vine and Periscope) reached a total of 141M users, which is 57% of the online population.*
  • The daily average reach was 35M users, resulting in Verto Stickiness Index** of 25% for August 2015.
  • Most of Twitter’s monthly users accessed its content via smartphones (71M), while 67M accessed its content via PCs and 25M via tablets.
  • 74M (52%) of Twitter’s monthly users accessed its content (Twitter, Vine and Periscope) via mobile devices only. Out of the daily users, the average number of mobile-only users was 13M (37%).
  • Twitter’s users spent 2 hours per month on average on the company’s content including Twitter, Vine and Periscope.
(*The online population includes all the online users in the US age of 18 or above accessing internet through any device. Currently the population is 247.7M. **The Verto Stickiness Index (VSI) compares daily users with monthly users to reflect the active, loyal, and engaged part of the audience. The higher the stickiness, the bigger the share of daily users is versus the monthly users.)

“Twitter excels at providing a quick glance of hot topics, news and trends as well as the easy sharing of interesting content. This is clearly visible when looking at the user data – an average Twitter user only spends two hours per month using the service, and only 25% of Twitter’s 141M monthly users access the service daily,” commented Dr. Hannu Verkasalo, Ph.D., CEO of Verto Analytics.

On valuation measures, TWTR’s current year and next year EPS growth estimates stand at 142.90% and 82.40%, compared to the industry growth rates of 14.10% and 24.40%, respectively. The name has a t-12 price/sales ratio of 11.60. EPS for the same period registers at ($0.95).

Stock reaction: Shares of Twitter have advanced 22.14% in the last 4 weeks while declining 15.46% in the past three months. Over the past 5 trading sessions the stock has lost 0.06%. TWTR is down 38.16% year-over-year and 13.88% year-to-date. During August’s market correction the name fell below its IPO offering price of $26/shr. The San Francisco-based company, currently valued at $21.05B, went public in November 2013, and hit a first day closing pps of $44.90.

Over the past year, Twitter shares have traded between a low of $21.01 and a high of $53.49, with its 50-day MA and 200-day MA located at $28.13 and $33.91 levels, respectively.

The chart below shows where the equity has traded over the last 52 weeks.

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