Another Month, Another Rise In The Conference Board’s Leading Indicator

The economy is poised to continue growing for the foreseeable future, according to the January update of the Conference Board’s leading indicator index. “This fourth consecutive gain in the LEI reflected fairly widespread strength among its components, pointing to somewhat more positive economic conditions in early 2012,” says Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim in a press release.

There’s no shortage of economists who agree. For instance: “There is some pretty good momentum in the economy,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, tells Bloomberg.

The rise in the Conference Board’s leading indicator mirrors improvement in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). As Doug Short wrote after ECRI updated its index this morning: “This is the fifth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for [ECRI’s] Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year.”

If the revival in leading indicators has convinced ECRI to repeal its recession forecast from last September, the firm hasn’t publicly announced a retraction. But if the economic numbers continue to improve–and it’s getting harder to think otherwise–ECRI and a handful of other analysts expecting a recession have some mea culpas in their future.

About James Picerno 900 Articles

James Picerno is a financial journalist who has been writing about finance and investment theory for more than twenty years. He writes for trade magazines read by financial professionals and financial advisers.

Over the years, he’s written for the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Reuters.

Visit: The Capital Spectator

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