Mapping China’s Growth

China’s economy continues to be full of surprises. Estimates from CLSA show China’s macroeconomic growth outpaced consensus estimates in 2010. Many expected a dramatic slowdown as government stimulus expired, but strength from the private sector pushed GDP growth above 10 percent.

CLSA says 2011 will mostly be the same story. The firm expects China to grow about 9.5 percent this year, fueled by a mixture of investment (5.5 percent) and consumption (4 percent).

Once again, this growth is expected without the help of the U.S. and Western Europe, whose economies continue to be two steps forward, one step back. This means exports are expected to contribute little-to-nothing to the country’s economic growth in 2011.

We witnessed many shifts in the global economic balance over the past decade but none as profound as the tilt toward China. These three maps illustrate countries that have equal GDP to Chinese provinces in 2000, 2009 and 2020.

In 2000, China’s union of provinces was similar to poor, developing countries. By 2009, China had grown into a union of provinces similar to many booming, developing countries. By 2020, it is projected that China GDP will be the sum of top-tier developing countries.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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About Frank Holmes 282 Articles

Affiliation: U.S. Global Investors

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company’s funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper’s top-performing global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper’s top-performing gold fund, the second time in four years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008 Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.”

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.

Visit: U.S. Global Investors

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