James Picerno
James Picerno's Latest Articles | 843
The Lesson from Japan
Japan’s stock market is on a roll, largely because expectations have dramatically changed this year about the underlying state of macro for the planet’s... Read »
Now It’s Really Time For A Flat Tax
If the scandal over monitoring political groups that forced the acting commissioner of the IRS to resign this week doesn’t inspire dismantling the tax-collecting... Read »
Industrial Output In April Slumps The Most In Eight Months
Industrial production fell more than expected last month, sliding 0.5% in April. That’s a bit deeper than economists projected, and it’s an even bigger drop... Read »
Consumer Spending Reveals No Signs of Rolling Off the Edge
Whenever a key economic indicator shows weakness in the latest monthly update, the usual worries arise. No explanation required in the current environment and so... Read »
The Chronic Crisis That Is The Euro
Lars Seier Christensen, the co-chief executive of Saxo Bank, thinks it’s only a matter of time before the euro passes into history as another failed experiment... Read »
A Reality Check for Two Employment Indicators
If the US was slipping into a recession, would the evidence be conspicuous in the labor market data? History says that’s a good bet. In fact, it’s inconceivable... Read »
Q1 GDP Falls Short of Forecasts
US economic growth rebounded in the first quarter after stalling in last year’s final three months, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports in today’s initial... Read »
Is The Recent Fall In Inflation Expectations A Warning Sign?
Earlier this month I noted that the relationship between US equities and the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast was looking a bit unusual–unusual... Read »
Has the Stock Market Finally Broken Free of Inflation Expectations?
If so, is this a turning point for the market? For inflation expectations? For the economy? Lots of questions at this point, with no answers. At least no definitive... Read »
Don’t Overlook the Dollar Factor for Oil Prices
It’s no secret that oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate have an economically robust relationship. The global market for crude oil, after all, is generally... Read »







