Baltic Dry Index Submerges

What happens when consumer demand drops off a cliff as it has over the last quarter? Shipments of goods and raw materials will likely follow. How are those shipments measured? Let’s check in on trends and developments within the Baltic Dry Index.

The Financial Times highlights the fact that the BDI is submerging precipitously and writes today:

…worrying signals about the global recovery remained. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of dry bulk commodity shipping costs seen by many as a leading indicator for growth, fell for a 29th successive session to its lowest level for more than a year.

Here is a chart of the BDI relative to gold over the last 18 months:

That recent submersion of the BDI is clearly sending a strong signal as to the grinding halt of  the global economy.

Can you spell disinflation if not outright deflation? Start with BDI and go from there. In fact, given these developments in the BDI, I would expect that gold may have further downside from current levels.

About Larry Doyle 522 Articles

Larry Doyle embarked on his Wall Street career in 1983 as a mortgage-backed securities trader for The First Boston Corporation. He was involved in the growth and development of the secondary mortgage market from its near infancy.

After close to 7 years at First Boston, Larry joined Bear Stearns in early 1990 as a mortgage trader. In 1993, Larry was named a Senior Managing Director at the firm. He left Bear to join Union Bank of Switzerland in late 1996 as Head of Mortgage Trading.

In 1998, after 15 years of trading and precipitated by Swiss Bank’s takeover of UBS, Larry moved from trading to sales as a senior salesperson at Bank of America. His move into sales led him to the role as National Sales Manager for Securitized Products at JP Morgan Chase in 2000. He was integrally involved in developing the department, hiring 40 salespeople, and generating $300 million in sales revenue. He left JP Morgan in 2006.

Throughout his career, Larry eagerly engaged clients and colleagues. He has mentored dozens of junior colleagues, recruited at a number of colleges and universities, and interviewed hundreds. He has also had extensive public speaking experience. Additionally, Larry served as Chair of the Mortgage Trading Committee for the Public Securities Association (PSA) in the mid-90s.

Larry graduated Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa in 1983 from the College of the Holy Cross.

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