Cyprus Deal Has Market Testing 2013 Highs

Most Monday morning headlines include the words “Cyprus Deal” and world markets are pretty green across the board.

Last week, we did see some volatility that gave plenty of opportunity on both sides of the tape. But if you look at the chart of the S&P, you will see we held higher again. The S&P held the 21-day moving average even easier than it did amidst the volatility stemming from the Italian election last month.

Futures are up about 7-8 handles knocking on the door of pivot resistance, 1557-1563 is an important resistance.

How we handle this level in the next day or so will be important for short term direction.

Tech had plenty of opportunity last week.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) finally broke its descending channel around $440, then held higher. Late last week we were looking for it to take out the 50-day moving average, which it did on Friday. Now It’s opening up 4-5 points and the next resistance zone is $473-$485. I will trim some on the open but will try and ride this one as long as it stays above the 50-day.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has been very quiet lately. Some say the hedge funds are now practicing arbitrage, playing GOOG short and AAPL long. I did nibble a little on Friday, but now GOOG needs to clear $817-819 in order to act better.

LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) held its 21-day MA and exploded on Friday after its upgrade, and is still best in breed. Its 2013 high is $184.15.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has been quiet as well, digesting a massive move since earnings. It needs to stay above $175-$177 in order to hold up. If it starts to get above $185-$187, maybe some momentum will come back.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock has been broken for the past week or so. It did put in an outside day Friday and might see a bounce back to $262-$265.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) gave us another nice entry into the 21-day as it has done the past few months. Now it’s at 2013 highs again.

EBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) had a decent snap back but needs time. The next resistance level is $54.39.

Sprint (NYSE:S) has been holding above $5.96-$6 pretty well. I did trim some Friday but still have some.

Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ) gave us a nice short entry on Wednesday and then traded lower for a third day Friday morning. Then it reversed and closed pretty strong. I am short here and will use $23.58 as my stop.

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) announced a 4-for-1 stock and it seems OK, but not compelling.

Banks gave some mixed signals.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) hasn’t really been acting well since the “stress tests.” It needs to get back above its moving averages to get out of trouble. A close above $150.70ish would have this looking better.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) pulled back to its 8-day moving average and held it well. The trend there still looks good.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) has been dribbling lower into the 21-day. It also looks okay.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) quietly pulled back to its 50-day and held it Friday. Doing work above that would be good.

Visa (NYSE:V) still looks good, with a big upper base. It needs to take out $162 to get into motion again.

MasterCard (NYSE:MA) stock hangs in there as well. Perhaps you have one buy spot at $520, then it needs to clear $535 to make new highs.

Target (NYSE:TGT) acts great, leading the retail group.

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) gave some a trade above $71 and then an add-on trade Friday at $74. It still looks good.

Costco (NASDAQ:COST) had a strong move on Friday and still looks in the game, providing leadership in retail.

The Homebuilders sector (XHB) holds in well above its above 8-day MA. The iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) came in to the 21-day.

Metals had a decent bounce but wasn’t very powerful. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) needs to hold $155ish to keep it alive, while Gold Miners ETF (GDX) needs to hold $37.85.

This week is the end of the quarter, so keep that in mind. It’s not an “all in” or “all out” market. It’s a market to manage multiple positions using different tier sizes, depending on patterns.

Disclosure: Scott J. Redler is Long: AAPL, GOOG, YHOO, S, BAC, DDD, WMT, MGM, F, AAPL Call Spread, DDD Call Spread. Short: SPY, HPQ.

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About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

Visit: T3Live

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