As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, the volatile world of cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), has become a focal point for investors and speculators alike. While political pundits and investors alike conjecture on how a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency might sway market dynamics, a recent report from Bernstein Research suggests that Bitcoin’s future might be largely independent of these political shifts. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin is poised to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors beyond the immediate reach of presidential policies.
Bernstein analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin’s journey is akin to a genie released from its bottle, indicating that the digital currency’s path is now well-established and difficult to alter significantly by any single event, including the U.S. election.
This perspective was echoed by Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, who during his discussion with Coinage, emphasized that Bitcoin’s price movements are more influenced by macroeconomic trends than by who might win the presidency. Hadick pointed out that recent market rallies are not merely a reaction to potential political outcomes but are more a response to macroeconomic conditions like increased liquidity and the resumption of quantitative easing.
“Over the last couple of months, we’ve seen a significant increase in liquidity,” Hadick remarked, attributing part of Bitcoin’s price surge to these broad financial strategies rather than direct political influence. The anticipation of Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, he noted, plays a crucial role in shaping investor behavior towards risk assets like Bitcoin.
The discussion around potential policy differences between Trump and Harris adds another layer of complexity. Trump’s campaign has made overtures towards embracing Bitcoin, talking about establishing a Bitcoin reserve and offering protections for miners.
However, Hadick remains skeptical about how deep these commitments would run if Trump were to win. In contrast, while there’s less noise from Harris’s side regarding crypto, the general market sentiment seems to lean towards expecting more regulatory oversight or possibly less favorable policies, which might introduce volatility, as seen with recent polls where support for Harris led to a dip in Bitcoin’s price.
Yet, despite these political undercurrents, the market’s resilience is evident. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see robust inflows, with CoinShares reporting an additional $2.2 billion invested last week, underscoring a persistent investor interest in Bitcoin regardless of political forecasts. This investment trend, coupled with a positive earnings season, suggests to Hadick that the economy might be moving past recession fears, further bolstering the case for Bitcoin’s growth.
The consensus from both Bernstein and Hadick points towards a scenario where Bitcoin’s value is largely propelled by economic fundamentals rather than political rhetoric. With macroeconomic indicators like liquidity, interest rates, and investor risk appetite all seemingly aligned in Bitcoin’s favor, the cryptocurrency is on a trajectory set by global economic trends rather than the domestic policy of the next U.S. administration.
Thus, as we edge closer to election day, while political outcomes will undoubtedly cause short-term fluctuations, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin appears written by a broader economic script, with a projected climb to $200,000 by 2025, underpinned by the increasing institutionalization of crypto assets and a macroeconomic environment ripe for growth in alternative investments.
Price Action: At press time, BTC is trading at $39,032, down 1.94% for the day. The $1.3T market cap coin has fluctuated between $67,260 and $69,433 over the past 24 hours, highlighting notable volatility.
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