Market Waits for the Fed

Seems like most have lowered their expectations for what Big Ben will release today. Most analysts are now predicting a very dovish release continuing the same rhetoric. The push out will now continue till September so they can gather more data. The real emphasis today will be on the ECB to see if they will back up Draghi’s strong statements last week. Some expectations have also been lowered there, but hinting at more action and then giving nothing of substance other than the same continued framework could lead to a major disappointment. Some type of plan to start buying bonds in the secondary market to bring down Spanish and Italian yields must be announced to appease investors. Talk is getting louder about the September 12th date for Germany’s vote…

The macro theme continues: sluggish growth metrics as seen by overnight PMIs versus the hope of renewed policy action and stimulus.

It’s been a very specific tape as some stocks have gotten punished during this earnings season. Some brutal beatings like we saw with Coach (COH) yesterday and the continued weakness in a name like Starbucks (SBUX). Names that reported good earnings or responded well to lowered expectations have been the go to names in the last few weeks.

Today, futures are up 4-5 handles as the SPX has done a pretty good job absorbing last week’s strong move. We’ve outlined 1374-1376 as upper level support that continues to hold. Lots of shorts remain trapped so a move above 1387-1392 will ignite another round of short covering and could take markets to 1400+. Use that as the pivot resistance to trade against, especially based on closing prices. If the market sells the news look to 1363-1365 as the intermediate support.

Disclosure: Scott Redler is flat

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About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

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