Market Looks to Recover From Worst Loss of 2012

Futures up this morning after the markets experienced their worst fall of 2012 on Tuesday. The Dow had yet to register a triple digit loss this year, and yesterday fell more than 200 points. Private bondholders have yet to agree to terms of a debt swap with Greece, and have until Thursday to do so before triggering a messy default. European markets are mostly higher today, possibly anticipating a deal getting done.

The way we judge future direction after a pull-back is by measuring the bounce! We have a few big events over the next few days that could play a significant part in the next market move. We have ADP employment numbers today, the Greek debt meeting Thursday, and then Friday’s big jobs report. Yesterday took us almost to a 25% retracement of the move from December 20th, which would be a healthy level to hold and bounce off of.

Apple (AAPL) could also provide a welcome distraction from the Greece situation with its major product launch today. The Cupertino-based company is expected to unveil the latest version of its tablet, the iPad 3.

Pandora (P) shares are 25% lower this morning after the company reported a larger than expected 4th quarter loss and weaker than expected first-quarter forecasts.

Crude oil tumbled yesterday but has steadied today, with April crude contracts rising $0.44. Gold also has recovered a bit from yesterday’s big sell-off, up around 0.5%.

A quick bounce would take the market back to S&P 1350-1354, which would be a spot to take some quick profits if you went long on the close. If the sellers/bears wish to press further declines on the back of yesterday, then they will defend the 1357-1359 area (this would be area to salvage some longs and perhaps “re-short” if you covered yesterday). How we handle that zone will be key if we get there.

If they sell the open and take us negative, use yesterday’s low of 1340 as a level. Under that is a small spot at 1332-1334. The next big zone will be the 50% retracement and the 50day moving average in the 1320 area.

There have been some groups that held in better than others. Some that lead us lower. We need to evaluate closely as we move forward.

Disclosures: Scott Redler is long AAPL, LVS.

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About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

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