Market Waits on Greek Debt Deal

US stock futures point to a higher open on Wall St Monday despite a lack of resolution in the Greek debt talks. Negotiations hit a wall over the weekend as private creditors said they could not improve their offer, but optimism as returned today. With a light data and earnings calendar today, action will be focused on the headlines in Europe. Euro finance ministers will meet today to determine the terms of Greece’s debt restructuring in order to a avoid a disorderly bailout.

Bondholders are expected to take on a loss of as much as 70%, and the deal will also involve swapping short-term debt for longer-term bonds. There are still doubts, though, about whether the latest bailout will be enough to get Greek debt to more under-control levels of 120% of GDP by 2020. March 20 is the firm deadline for Greece to avoid a hard default. The market could trade sideways until we get a major, definitive headline out of the Greek talks.

In corporate news, Research in Motion (RIMM) is 4% higher this morning after the beleaguered company’s co-CEO’s, Jim Balsille and Mike Lazaridis, announced they would be resigning. The company’s leader have been much maligned, and many say the move has come too late to save the company. Chief Operating Officer Thorsten Heins will take the reins.

Halliburton (HAL) highlighted a light earnings calendar this morning, slipping more than 1% despite announcing a 50% rise in 4th quarter net income and 37% increase in revenue. Also in the oil service sector, Apache (APA) will be on investors’ radars after announcing it would buy Cordillera Energy Partners III LLC for $2.85 billion.

Hong Kong and other Asian markets are closed today for the Lunar New Year Holidays.

TECHNICAL TAKE

Markets continue to trend higher in an impressive, methodical way. If there are “Four Quarters” to a directional move, I’m usually at my best during the first two Quarters, then around the middle of the third Quarter it gets a bit tougher for me to keep as much risk on. At this point the S&P is following a new “ascending channel” and the trend can’t be fought until it changes. We are seeing some stocks beat up after earnings and some divergences each day, but ultimately, the market has given you little reason to fight it.

In the S&P, use 1315 as the tradable pivot just make sure we don’t flash through it, squeeze higher and come back below on a daily close. A 60 minute close above 1315 would opens the door to a small cluster at 1318-1322 and then 1325.

The bigger Resistance zone really stands at 1331-1347. The 1320-1340 level was my Q1 2012 target, and it almost got met very quickly. The question, now is: Do you raise the target or stick to it? This is when you have to take a very close look at the technical landscape.

Futures were trading most of the night around 1305-1308, which can be seen as first support today. Further, the 10day moving average is around 1295.

Technology has been leading the way since the macro pivot wedge.

Google (GOOG) had a big miss. This is why I always take risk off into earnings as I am not a “macro investor”. I do think the 200 day around $562 will be buyable, but we will cross that bridge when we get there. Right now use Friday’s range as the new pivots to trade on a micro level- Gap starts at $591- I will see if we can get a trade around there for cash flow.

AAPL– stock go hit Friday with some “goog” footsteps. I sold most of mine on Thursday and Friday’ open. I will revisit tomorrow on my radio around 3:30 Tuesday.

AMZN– nice trade above $184-$185. It came down a bit. See if it holds above $188-$190

BIDU– Still sloppy

NFLX– sold mine last Thursday around 102+ and now it seems like it wants to consolidate. Holding $96-$98 would be good.

SNDK– is holding up very well. $53.50 is a the momentum Pivot

MEGA CAP TECH- was impressive Friday

MSFT– my mega cap surprise can use a rest- Talked about this stock finally getting frisky over a week or so ago. It blasted off Friday- needs some time now but this stock can see $32-$35 this year

CSCO– didn’t run fast but gave us a nice move from the $19-$19.05 additional buy price

INTC– started slow and then got going Friday. Another stock that gained respect last year and can see $30 plus easy this year- but needs to consolidate

I am running a little late- I’m hosting the live morning call with Stephanie Link and Alix steel. She will be going in depth on the Industrial’s and the Refiners. Tune in for the Fundamental and Technical take as she is a bit more long term than I am used to.

Congrats to all you Giants Fans. You deserve it. They played hard and with Class. It’s great to walk soft and Carry a heavy stick. Let the action on the field do the talking. My Jets should learn a bit of a lesson.

Disclosures: Scott J, Redler is long SPY XLF OIH WMT VXX, Short DIA.

About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

Visit: T3Live

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