Where is the Global Economy Likely to Go?

As with anything in economic forecasting, what I am about to say is at best an educated guess.  Given the present environment, where is the global economy likely to go?

Any analysis like this has to contend with political factors that drive the major imbalances of the global economy.  Here are the imbalances as I see them:

  • China insists on keeping its currency cheap in order to promote employment at home.
  • The US does not care about deficits or currency debasement, as it seeks Keynesian remedies to its economic crises.  (Little realizing that they are making things worse…)
  • The Eurozone protects profligate euro-fringe nations, at the possible cost of destroying the Eurozone as a whole.

If China will not allow its currency to strengthen, well then, the path of least resistance is for the US to debase its currency, leading the world in a cycle of competitive debasement/inflation.  Since many nations want to be net exporters, US Dollar weakness is responded to through debasement, or purchase of US Dollar assets.

Putting it simply, the path of least resistance is inflation.  Reduce the value of nominal debts in real terms.  Eliminate underwater debts by raising the nominal prices of the collateral.

Now, surplus nations like China and Germany will resist this, but I suspect they will be dragged to this, kicking and screaming.

We are in the process of trying the alternative approach to solving the Great Depression via inflation, which will have a different set of problems than the foolishness of FDR.  The problem is too much debt, which needs to be changed into equity, but government tinkering discourages compromises.

Rather than the deflation that characterized the Great Depression, inflation may be what drives the future.  The question could be “how much?”

But all that said, there are other possibilities.  We could raise taxes and pay off the debt.  We could default on the debt.  Neither of these are favored by current politics, but they could happen.

So as you invest, consider an inflationary bias.  I think it is the likely wave of the future.

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About David Merkel 145 Articles

Affiliation: Finacorp Securities

David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better. I still contribute to RealMoney, but I have scaled it back because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution. After one year of operation, I believe I have achieved that.

In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities. Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.

Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.

I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University. In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth.

Visit: The Aleph Blog

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