Morning Update: Market Thread 5-18-2009

We are surely living in a Bizzaro world. Let’s see, Goldman comes out with a “conviction buy” on Bank of America (suggested new stock symbol LMAO), and it rockets more than 8%! Hey, let me ask you this… why should it be legal for a large institution to publicly issue “ratings” on any company in which they own stock or could affect the market in any way shape or form? Insane.

Lowe’s is up 12% despite lower year over year profits and lower sales. Still, they did beat expectations.

Not a lot of meaningful economic reports this week, bond auctions of course. But what is really killing me is this article from Fortune where we learn some of the ways OUR TALF money is working – like, HELLO, going to back Harley Davidson! Now there’s a company America can’t live without! Ah, gee, funny but didn’t someone by the name of Buffett just invest a ton of money in Harley? Ah, gee, amazing how government, YOUR MONEY, is following BEHIND his investments.

Geithner’s gift to Wall Street

As the first TALF-backed deals for Ford, Honda and Harley’s debt hit the market, professional investors see an opportunity to make a killing.

NEW YORK (Fortune) — Imagine if you were not really in the market for a house but the government came along and said that it would finance 94% of a home’s purchase price with a mortgage rate of less than 3%. Still not interested? Wait, Uncle Sam has some additional sweeteners: if you do the deal and buy the house for only 6% down, you also get the equivalent of rental income every month to the tune of at least an annualized yield of 10% of the purchase price.

But wait there’s still more: if, say, after two years, you decide you don’t want the house any longer, you can just walk away from it. No need to pay the balance of the mortgage (it won’t effect your credit rating), and you can keep the rental income received to date. More here »

Got TALF “approval?” That’s what I thought. You have more expensive Harleys than you should, that’s what you have! Boy, talk about your moral hazard… But keep in mind that little Timmy’s TALF won’t actually be anywhere near large enough to actually get the shadow banking system back to where it was. Quite the opposite. IN THE LONG RUN, the moral hazard and rule changing will chase away capital.

Okay, so what are the markets doing? Going up of course!

The short term stochastics were all oversold on Friday’s close and thus a higher day is expected today. We are likely to break out of the downchannel on the upside, and no, I am not hanging short through that.

Resistance will come in the 900 area. If 903 is taken out on a closing basis, that would be bullish in the short run. The first pivot point higher is at 912 and then 935.

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About Nathan A. Martin 121 Articles

Nathan A. Martin is President of Wingman Investments, LLC, and author of the book Flight to Financial Freedom – Fasten Your Finances. He sees people, both young and old, facing a new era where they are forced to be responsible for their own financial success or failure. His message is clear; become financially literate or be a victim of the external forces that are impacting everyone. Nathan possesses an undergraduate degree in Professional Aviation and Business as well as a Master’s degree in Aviation Management and Operations.

A former Air Force and retired airline pilot, his flying took him the world over participating in many operations including the invasion of Panama, and combat time during Operation Desert Storm. Experience has come over 26 years of flight - logging more than 12,000 flight hours both civilian and military, and as the owner of a corporate aviation management company whose focus was aircraft efficiency.

Influenced by his parents entrepreneurial activities, Nathan began his business and investment training early in life and has used that knowledge every step along the way... from business school to his own corporations and personal investments.

Visit: Nathan's Economic Edge

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