There’s been a lot of talk about Bitcoin (BTC) in the past few weeks. The price has seen some up and downs, with many people wondering if it’s headed for another bull run. While no one can say for sure what will happen, some experts believe that bitcoin may stay sideways for another two years before reigniting its bull run.
In a tweet on April 6, prominent commodity trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical data related to bitcoin bull cycle patterns, suggesting that hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for BTC‘s next price surge.
In the world of cryptocurrency, it is well-known that bitcoin typically goes through 4-year cycles, with each cycle consisting of a bull run followed by a period of consolidation. This is because the halving event, which happens every four years, cuts in half the reward that miners receive for verifying transactions on the blockchain. This can lead to reduced mining activity and, as a result, higher prices.
In the past, we have seen that the price of bitcoin tends to increase in the months leading up to the halving event as well as during the event itself. This is because investors are anticipating that the reduced supply will lead to higher prices. After the halving event, we typically see a period of price consolidation.
In the current cycle, we are now just almost two years away from the halving event that is scheduled to occur in May 2024.
“The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in,” Brandt explained, noting that data shows bitcoin may not reach its next ‘rocket stage’ until 2024.
The past two times $BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in
If history repeats itself (which I do not believe it will), the next rocket stage will be ignited in May 2024
What do you all think? pic.twitter.com/ONyWQW5Uf8
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 6, 2022
This means that we could see the price of bitcoin start to increase in the coming months. If history repeats itself, meaning, the relationship of price to BTC‘s halving cycles remains unchanged, then we could see the apex cryptocurrency reach new all-time highs in the months leading up to the halving event.
Brandt’s analysis is likely to be music to the ears of hodlers who have been patiently waiting for the cryptoasset’s next rocket stage to get started.
In terms of what could keep bitcoin’s price from uptrending until then, analysts have pointed the finger at large-scale events that have the potential to impact bitcoin’s price action. In the past, we’ve seen macro triggers like the Chinese Yuan devaluation and the Brexit vote create significant volatility in the bitcoin markets.
It’s possible that we could see something similar happen in the lead up to the next bitcoin halving. If there’s a global economic recession or another financial crisis, investors may flock to bitcoin as a safe haven asset. However, if there’s a period of stability or even prosperity, investors may be less inclined to put their money into bitcoin.
That said, bitcoin has surprised analysts before and it will certainly do it again. Time will tell.
As of press time, BTC is changing hands for around $43,400, down 4% in the last 24 hours
Disclaimer: The information provided is not trading advice