Why Obamacare Will Make Its Numbers

Despite its rollout problems I think that it’s probable that Obamacare blasts past its goal of 7 million enrollees in its first year. I’ll give you two reasons this is going to happen.

  1. Fast and Furious, Benghazi, the AP and IRS scandals, Syria, and the NSA. Remember all of those scandals? Of course you do and you also probably recognize that nothing, zip, nada has stuck to this President as a result of those incidents. He and his inner ring are masters of waiting out the storm, they have hides as thick as a rhinoceros and they know how to let their allies fulminate in order to show the world that they’re serious about propriety and then reel them back into line. The spin takes over and becomes the reality, the problem is left for talk radio hosts to fulminate over, life goes on.That’s the script they’re following. Take the arrows and wait. The website will be up and functioning to some degree by the end of November, the holidays will divert attention and by February or March they’ll be able to claim success as the number of participants will be beyond what they hoped for because…
  2. The wholesale cancellation of individual insurance policies was always their ace in the hole. It was impossible to know how many uninsured would sign up for Obamacare but it wasn’t hard to figure out that if you engineered the cancellation of insurance coverage for a large number of people who had insurance you would probably get most of them into your program given it was the only game in town. These people are used to having insurance, many probably use it and need it and, even if they don’t, feel naked going uninsured. They may bitch, scream and stomp their feet but they will enroll. Presto, you have your number – no you blast through your number.

Regardless of what the President meant when he said that everyone could keep their insurance, period, the fact is that the plan was devised from the outset to force the wholesale cancellation of existing insurance policies. This is where the assured market existed and the architects of the law knew that full well. However lame and amateurish the implementation of the website has been, the law was  carefully crafted for success. The website will get fixed, people will sign up in droves and this affair will simply be another entry in the list I cited above. As an opponent I can only tip my hat to those devious folks who put it together and congratulate them on playing a brilliant game. That game, by the way, is over. Get used to it.

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About Tom Lindmark 401 Articles

I’m not sure that credentials mean much when it comes to writing about things but people seem to want to see them, so briefly here are mine. I have an undergraduate degree in economics from an undistinguished Midwestern university and masters in international business from an equally undistinguished Southwestern University. I spent a number of years working for large banks lending to lots of different industries. For the past few years, I’ve been engaged in real estate finance – primarily for commercial projects. Like a lot of other finance guys, I’m looking for a job at this point in time.

Given all of that, I suggest that you take what I write with the appropriate grain of salt. I try and figure out what’s behind the news but suspect that I’m often delusional. Nevertheless, I keep throwing things out there and occasionally it sticks. I do read the comments that readers leave and to the extent I can reply to them. I also reply to all emails so feel free to contact me if you want to discuss something at more length. Oh, I also have a very thick skin, so if you disagree feel free to say so.

Enjoy what I write and let me know when I’m off base – I probably won’t agree with you but don’t be shy.

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