Bespoke notes how the recent drop is symmetrical with the prior summer drop – 42 days top to bottom. This suggests a bottom with a final leg up still. Tony Caldaro further notes that the recent drop “retraced 61.8% of the previous uptrend [which] fits within the parameters for the typical wave 2 corrections during this bull market.”
On the other hand, Zerohedge points out that today’s action betrays the signature of a serious short squeeze. When we broke below the lower trendline of the big rising wedge, short interest increased; and often when the market comes back up to kiss the trendline goodbye, it denotes a short squeeze.
Usually the stub week of Thanksgiving is positive, and the following Cybermonday is down, so look to several days action next week to get a read on this market. We came up near the tops in 2000 and 2007, close enough to argue for a triple top, but typically the triple top would be closer (ie. around SP1550-1600). It wouldn’t surprise me to see a final thrust up. Given the false break below the trendline, this thrust would likely have a false break above – another short squeeze of players betting on the upper trendline – before the end. So SP1565 is still on the radar.
The primary elliott wave counterview is that this rally is a counter-trend rally in a larger move down, and using the math of Caldaro the other way round, should go back 62% before reversing down. So far the Friday thrust got us 38% back, which is usually the minmum retrace; and now we might see a down move (wave B of the countertrend rally) followed by a final move up towards SP1430 (Dow15K). At that point one of the two scenarios will meet their end; this Shroedinger Cat bounce will either be found dead or alive.
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