Market Tries to Find a Bottom

Overseas Headlines continue to control this market as seems the foot that keeps kicking this can down the road is getting a bit fractured. Whereas before Europe was slogging through the mud, now they are sinking into quicksand ever since leadership was voted out in France and Greece snubbed all those that bent over backwards to rescue them.

Technically this market has been broken and a “sell” since May 3rd and 4th. This correction has been characterized as “slow” and “methodical”, and in order to get a “sustainable” bottom you need acceleration and fear! Markets have been working lower and are getting closer to the Macro targets I gave a few weeks back. The McClellan Oscillator is around -50, which is oversold but not extreme like we usually see to get multiday bounce type moves. That typically happens around -70 to -85.

Yesterday’s pivot low (1328) is the first spot to watch today. We could get a juicy Red Dog Reversal soon that actually might last for more than a few hours. This strategy can be used for multiple stocks today as lots are almost ready for a small counter-trend tactical move!

The 1318-1322 zone is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If we see this today, I think you are playing with fire if you don’t cover shorts here if you didn’t already.

The 1295-1305 level is the measured move of the Head & Shoulders pattern that triggered as when we closed below the 1360-1365 neckline.

Resistance stands at the prior pivot area of 1343-1345, with a bigger zone at 1360-1364.

Commodities have been broken most of this year and continue to get crushed. At some point this will be a positive for America. Gold (GLD) is approaching the pivot low from late December, and there could be some action today in that zone ($1,523 on Gold futures and $148.27 in the GLD). If you’ve been short this metal congrats, and if you take trades along the way, this could be a spot to cover or look for some type of cute long.

September 6th was the Outside day that marked the High ($1,900ish) for Gold and 2/29 was the day the intermediate downtrend took control. The Macro trend also seems to have broken with bigger support down around GLD $140, so know your time frame. Gold hasn’t had an identity this entire year, so it’s been more technical.

Coal and solar names have been in liquidation mode as they have been the weakest groups all year.

The Key to making money in this tape is to Know your time frame and know what you’re good at. Quick tactical trades are working and staying net short for lower targets in this corrective phase. Longer term guys also can’t be so upset if they have a multi-year approach as we are only about 6% off the highs.

S&P 500 Could Correct to 1300-1320
Tuesday, 8 May 2012 6:13 PM ET
Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer, says the S&P 500 could correct to 1300-1320, which would make it a compelling area to buy

Disclosure: Scott Redler is short SPY, AAPL.

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About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

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