Last week was a powerful one for the markets, as most sectors are in multiyear highs or approaching them.
Transports played a bit of catch up as did the Russell and the energy complex. Tech, home builders and banks lead the way.
As we enter this week, the news overnight has been mostly AAPL. They are hosting a 9:00a.m conference call on what to do with their mounting cash. How the market treats the stock could give clues whether a rest is due overall for the Indices.
Stock right now is trading over $600 the prior pivot highs. I think the highest probability for them to be able to just “sell the news” would be if they do a special onetime dividend. What AAPL bulls would like to see is a consistent Dividend with a 2%-3% yield combined with authorization for a share buyback program. Either way- it will be fast and furious and not for everyone. The first 15-30 minutes will be important as well as the first 60 minute range. I will have more later on this.
Hit the first resistance area outlined last week 1404-1407 ( I mentioned this would be a good spot to take some profits and trim extended stocks).
Big Macro resistance lies around 1420-1440
Very tight upper support stands at 1396-1398
The recent floor of support stands at 1389-1392
Big support stands at the Prior break out highs around 1372-1377
AAPL– see above statement – I will have more closer.
AMZN– still in a lower macro wedge- Overall seems bearish. Above 185.68 and it could be good for a cash flow bounce type trade
NFLX– trying to perk up. I see a Descending channel that could be resolved to the upside. A strong move and close above $111-112 can get this going again
GOOG– acting much better after closing above most of its moving averages on 3/13. It’s trying to get above recent midlevel channel. Still hard to trade but investors should be rewarded later this year for staying the course.
LNKD– stalling around the $94-$95 area. As long as it stays above 88-89 it’s fine. in order to get going it must take out that $94-95 area to get going.
RIMM– got some volume on Friday- maybe it can be can continue for cash flow- but I wouldn’t expect much.
VMW– great trade since the 102 pivot buy- it can use a rest
Banks- this group was powerful last week. Actually strong all year. I did trim the rest of my holding there into Friday
JPM– Continues to lead and is a bit extended.
GS– absorbed the Oped pretty well. Seems like it’s flagging for another trade- use $123-$125 as the next pivot
BAC– was my targeted trade for cash flow above $8.25- it closed strong Friday around 9.80. Next major resistance zone is 10.05-10.27 I would not chase it up here, but be careful if you’re trying a cute short. Some started Friday and are a bit scared.
IYT – bounced Friday back to the upper range
OIH– some money rotated there on Friday- XEC EOG PXD OXY Look okay- SLB and HAL woke up a bit
USO/oil- is trying to turn higher- USO needs to get over $41.20ish for me to add.
TBT– in order for this trade to keep the upper momentum. It should hold the $20.30-$20.45 area. This is where I will look to buy some back that I sold over $21
Casinos- still look good
LVS and WYNN could use a bit of a rest
CZR– is acting okay even with the secondary announcement- holding above $12 would be constructive
DNKN– announced a 22 million share offering. I would be happy if it holds $31-$31.20 — crucial support for me to stay involved for momentum would be $30.50-$30.70- (that is where I would add if it can hold)
Markets have come a long way- the chorus is growing louder for a correction. I still see a ton of great action and nice rotation. Holding stocks that act well with some hedges using a tier system has been working
Busy morning- I will have more later
Disclosure: Scott J, Redler is long USO NFLX RIMM SIMG DNKN LVS CZR JCP TBT LNKD DRYS, Short SPY.