US stock futures are pointing higher Tuesday morning, with S&P futures set to open up above the 2011 highs of 1370. Lower oil prices and hope for a longer-term liquidity operation by the European Central Bank. The German Bundestag approved the second Greek bailout, clearing one of the final hurdles for the rescue.
After days of dancing around Dow 13,000 and S&P 1370, it will be interesting to see if we can open and hold above these zones. The QQQ’s have been trading above their 10-day moving average for over 45 sessions now. The SPY held the 10-day yesterday to the penny.
While it may seem that risk-reward is in favor of short positions at these higher levels, a prudent technical trader sticks with the trend until it breaks. With all this positive action, it seems like everyone still wants a correction. Everyone still wants to be a pessimist vs. an optimist. I say you don’t have to be either, just watch the price action and trend. I prefer to be a realist with an optimistic bias.
European banks will probably tap the ECB for 470 billion Euros in three-year funds. If you remember, back in December when they did this the first time, it changed the complexion of the market to the upside. So let’s see what transpires here.
Investors are still worried about oil prices, and rightfully so. But I say: don’t worry until the market does. Right now the S&P and oil still have a positive correlation and trade together. When we see that relationship change, I will try and point it out. If oil comes off hard, its possible it could have a dramatically positive effect on the market.
Each market environment has a certain character. This one is a slow, steady trend with light volume. Moves don’t happen as quick, so you need to be patient and give stocks time to work out.
In earnings news, Priceline (PCLN) is up 7% to new all-time highs after earnings last night. The stock has been in a steep uptrend since late 2008, and had recently put in a macro bull flag pattern. PCLN has been on a tear in 2012 so far, and today’s move will add to that momentum.
Disclosures: Scott Redler is long SPY, OIH, BA, MMM, INTC, IBM, NUAN, LVS JPM, GS. Short DIA and QQQ. Long AMZN puts and SMP puts.