US stock futures are off a bit this morning after some soft economic data out of Europe. A purchasing managers survey in the Euro zone showed an unexpected contraction in the economy in February. Markets typically find sellers at big psychological levels like Dow 13,000 or S&P 1370. Usually we don’t just bust through them at first attempt, especially after the upside we’ve already seen so far this year. Now we will we watching what levels can hold over the next few sessions.
Spending some time above recent highs in the S&P of 1353-1355 would be constructive. If they probe below that level, the 10day moving average has been important to watch. It now stands at 1351. Markets have been riding the 10-day MA for multiple weeks, which is a sign of extreme technical strength.
There is a cluster of support around 1342-1344. The last few times we reached new levels we then retraced into a support area like that. The line in the sand for composure/speed to change a bit is if we were to break and close below 1335-1337.
I will stay with some of my swing longs unless the composure changes, but I will be a lot lighter than I’ve been since the December 20th Gap and Go.
Disclosures: Scott Redler is long SPY, OIH, QCOM, INTC, JPM, IBM, VXX. Long AMZN Puts, short QQQ.