Germany has been held up as a model for the United States by David Leonhardt and others. Reihan Salam correctly observes that German offshoring to Eastern Europe has been an essential part of Germany’s apparent success. He also points out that:
The fall of communism was, as Marin suggests, a positive exogenous shock that proved a tremendous boon the German economy. A 20% increase in productivity is nothing to sneeze at, and I don’t think that David Leonhardt gave the role of offshoring its due in explaining the virtues of the German model.
Of course, the Houseman-Mandel thesis also tell us that German productivity gains, like U.S. productivity gains, might offer less than meets the eye.
Reihan raises a very interesting point which I hadn’t considered. Remember that our recent paper, “Not all productivity gains are the same. Here’s why”, we divided measured productivity growth into three types:
- Improvements in domestic production processes
- Gains in global supply chain efficiency
- Productivity gains at foreign suppliers.
As we noted in the paper, these different types of productivity growth cannot be told apart in the conventional economic statistics. However, the type of productivity growth matters for domestic wages and jobs. For example, productivity gains from improvements in domestic production processes are more likely to result in rising real wages for domestic factory workers.
We made our argument in terms of the U.S., but it potentially applies to other countries as well. I hadn’t considered Germany until Reihan raised the point, but in fact Germany appears to use a similar import price methodology as the U.S. (see for example Silver 2007) with the potential for similar problems, though I need to take a closer look to make sure.
Here’s something to think about: In a global economy, measured productivity growth in an industrialized country potentially may not measure only the strength of that country’s domestic economy, but also its ability to successfully offshore production to cheaper countries, with implications for domestic wages and jobs.
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