Good Times for Harley, Winnebago Shares; The Recession Must be Over

Harley-Davidson

Winnebago

The chart above (click to enlarge) shows the two-month returns for Harley-Davidson (HOG) and Winnebago (WGO), compared to the S&P500 Index, from March 9 through today (May 7). The S&P500 Index is up by 35% since early March, but Harley Davidson is up by almost 140% (4 times the S&P500 return) and Winnebago is up by about 170% (almost 5 times the S&P500 return).

Bottom Line: If the stock prices of companies like Harley-Davidson and Winnebago selling luxury, discretionary items like $35,000 motorcycles (pictured above) and $140,000 RVs (see picture above) are rebounding by +100% over a two-month period, at 4-5 times the increase in the S&P500 Index, I think the recession must be over.

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About Mark J. Perry 262 Articles

Affiliation: University of Michigan

Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.

He holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University in Washington, D.C. and an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota.

Since 1997, Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan.

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