Market Still Following 1937 Pattern

In 1937 All Over Again I laid out the case that we are following the pattern of the original double-dip, the reversal in 1937 that broke the hope of coming out of the Great Depression.

James Shaw at SeekingAlpha had first suggested this pattern back in 2008, and updates his analysis today. The chart is a bit busy, but you can see he overlays a simplified pattern of our market on top of the 1937-42 market. If the pattern continues, here is the roadmap:

  • flat for the rest of August
  • bounce in Sept/Oct
  • sharp drop in Nov/Dec
  • sickening slide for two more years
  • new low in 2012

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About Duncan Davidson 228 Articles

Affiliation: NetService Ventures

Duncan is an advisor to NetService Ventures, where he focuses on digital media and the mobile Internet.

Previously he was at four start-ups: Xumii, a mobile social service based on a Social Addressbook; SkyPilot Networks, the performance leader of wireless mesh systems for last-mile access, where he was the founding CEO; Covad Communications (Amex: DVW, $9B market cap at the peak), the leading independent DSL access provider, where he was the founding Chairman; InterTrust Technologies ($9B market cap at the peak), the pioneer in digital rights management technologies, now owned by Sony and Philips, where he was SVP Business Development and the pitchman for the IPO.

Before these ventures, Duncan was a partner at Cambridge Venture Partners, an early-stage venture firm, and managing partner of Gemini McKenna, a joint venture between Regis McKenna's marketing firm and Gemini Consulting, the global management consulting arm of Cap Gemini.

He serves on the board or is an adviser to Aggregate Knowledge (content discovery), Livescribe (digital pen), AllVoices (citizen journalism), Xumii (mobile social addressbook), Verismo (Internet settop box), and Widevine (DRM for IPTV).

Visit: Duncan Davidson's Blogs

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