July and Emerging Markets

There’s no shortage of bleak news out there that’s weighing heavily on the markets, but we could be coming into a positive period for emerging markets investors.

The chart below, from Jim Lowell at Dow Jones MarketWatch, shows that July tends to be a good month for emerging market equities.

The sector’s beta-weighted performance in July tops 2 percent on average, far greater than any other asset class on the chart.

Of course, emerging markets can be highly volatile and there’s no assurance that this month will follow the pattern. But Lowell’s observation is certainly timely and may be of value to investors looking for opportunities in the current market.

Our experience is that seasonality is one of many important variables to monitor to keep a finger on the pulse of the market.

We have found it useful over the years to watch the seasonality of gold, oil, copper and other commodities as part of our broader approach of tracking both short-term and long-term cycles.

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

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About Frank Holmes 282 Articles

Affiliation: U.S. Global Investors

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company’s funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper’s top-performing global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper’s top-performing gold fund, the second time in four years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008 Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.”

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.

Visit: U.S. Global Investors

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