I’m on record as saying that I think Treasury bonds have no logical lower limit in yield. While its conceptually hard to be bullish on the 10-year at 2.60%, the threat of deflation completely changes the game.
However, there should be one logical limit on any bond, and that’s zero. You can’t possibly be willing to lend money to anyone and lock in a loss on the trade. It doesn’t make sense.
So when I heard that there were T-Bill trades occurring above par, I was more stunned that Princess Leia aboard the Tantive IV. Who bought T-bills above par? Why would you enter into that trade with a certain loss when you can simply hold currency at no loss?
And don’t tell me the dollar is worthless bullshit, because you aren’t better off buying dollar denominated T-Bills if the dollar is worthless. Hell, if the dollar was a problem, Treasuries would be cheap, not insanely rich.
Now normally I’d assume that someone got trapped in a short, but who is shorting T-Bills? Seems like an odd trade.
Anyway, if you know how the hell this could have happened, post a comment.
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