Paul Lemming: Huge Glut of Polysilicon Coming in 2010

The global solar oversupply of polysilicon will plague the solar industry in 2010, Soleil Securities analyst Paul Lemming warned today, with prices likely to head sharply lower.

Barron’s Eric Savitz picked up Lemming’s note that was released this morning. Here are a few excerpts:

“Over the next three quarters, he calculates, the amount of polysilicon available to the solar market is going to increase by about 70%. He says it is true that the poly market became “snug” in the third quarter due to a jump in seasonal installations, but adds that conditions will change in the 2010 first half “as every major producer of polysilicon ramps new capacity.”

He thinks the industry is facing the prospect of 60%-80% over supply next year, with no hope of a more balanced market before sometime in 2011 at the earliest.

In Lemming’s view, the spot price of polysilicon is heading to the mid $30s per kg over the next six months – from $50-$55 range – with prices below $30 “not out of the question.” The analyst notes that there is a widespread notion that pricing will hold at current levels over the nest year, but adds that is likely only if things are different this time – “and this time is never different.” [Related ETF: Market Vectors Solar Energy (KWT)]

Read the whole thing here »

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