- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) CEO Subodh Kulkarni maintains a conservative outlook on quantum computing’s near-term commercial potential, projecting a “couple billion dollars a year” market over the next 4-5 years before growing to hundreds of billions annually within 15 years.
- Despite Rigetti’s measured stance focusing on research and government partnerships, the company’s stock has experienced extreme volatility—reaching $21.42 in January 2025 before falling 47% this year while still remaining up 433% over 12 months.
- Major consulting firms forecast quantum computing to become a substantial market by 2040, with McKinsey projecting $45 – $131 billion and Boston Consulting Group estimating $90 – $170 billion in market size.
In a quantum computing landscape often characterized by grandiose promises and aggressive timelines, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stands apart with its methodical, research-driven approach. CEO Subodh Kulkarni‘s conservative outlook represents a notable departure from the industry’s more enthusiastic players, highlighting the tension between quantum computing’s long-term revolutionary potential and its near-term commercial viability.
“Our peer companies are a lot more optimistic and aggressive with their forecasts,” Kulkarni told Barron’s. “We share their enthusiasm for the long-term potential. But when it comes to the next three to five years, we are of a more conservative view.” Rigetti employs a superconducting gate-based quantum architecture, the same methodology used by industry heavyweights IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN). While this approach offers broader application potential than the annealing quantum method favored by competitors like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Kulkarni maintains that the technology remains firmly in the research and development phase.
The company’s scientific foundation is bolstered by its participation in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Quantum Benchmark Initiative program since 2022, which validates progress in quantum computing. This government-backed research focus distinguishes Rigetti from competitors who emphasize extensive commercial client engagements.
Despite the company’s measured stance, Rigetti’s stock has experienced dramatic volatility. Shares reached an all-time high of $21.42 on January 5, 2025, before falling 47% this year to close at $8.15 on Friday. Nevertheless, the stock remains up an impressive 433% over the past 12 months. Kulkarni maintains a detached view of these market fluctuations, admitting, “I can get dizzy looking at the volatility of our stock price.”
This volatility was recently demonstrated following Nvidia’s (NVDA) Quantum Day at its GTC conference, where CEO Jensen Huang joined quantum computing executives to discuss the technology’s future. Huang’s participation came after controversial January remarks suggesting “very useful quantum computers” were decades away. While he extended an apology to the sector, Huang expressed surprise that public quantum computing companies existed at all, highlighting the widespread misunderstanding of the technology’s current state.
Kulkarni projects a modest market size of “a couple billion dollars a year” for quantum computing over the next four to five years, primarily driven by government-funded national labs and academic researchers. However, he envisions quantum computing growing into an industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually over the next 15 years.
This projection aligns with industry forecasts from major consulting firms. McKinsey & Co. estimates a quantum computing market size between $45 billion and $131 billion by 2040, while Boston Consulting Group projects an even higher range between $90 billion and $170 billion.
In the interim, Kulkarni advises investors to approach quantum computing stocks with a long-term perspective: “You should only be trading in the stocks if you have a long-term horizon and believe in the technology. You shouldn’t be dabbling in them to make a quick buck, because of the volatility in stock prices.”
The CEO envisions quantum computing’s initial commercial success emerging through coexistence with GPUs in data centers as part of a hybrid computing model. This pragmatic vision reflects Rigetti’s overall approach to quantum development—acknowledging both the technology’s transformative potential and the significant work still required to achieve commercially viable quantum systems.
As the quantum sector continues to mature, Rigetti’s methodical stance may prove prescient. While competitors race to make headline-grabbing claims, Rigetti’s focus on incremental, verifiable progress represents a different path toward the same ultimate destination: harnessing quantum mechanics to solve previously intractable computational problems.
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