- Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Bill Gates believes useful quantum computing could arrive within 3-5 years, contrasting with Nvidia‘s (NVDA) Jensen Huang’s 15-30 year estimate and Meta‘s (META) Mark Zuckerberg’s decade-plus outlook.
- Microsoft is actively working on what it claims will be “the world’s most powerful quantum machine,” expected to be released later this year, amidst a broader industry effort involving Google (GOOG) and others.
- The debate over quantum computing’s timeline has led to volatility in quantum computing stocks like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), with Gates also noting AI’s more predictable and rapid development as a near-term focus for business transformation.
In the realm of technology, the timeline for quantum computing has become a focal point of debate, with Microsoft (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates presenting an optimistic outlook contrasting with more conservative predictions from other tech giants. Gates suggested on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast that there’s a possibility quantum computing could become practically useful within three to five years, challenging the longer timelines proposed by Nvidia‘s (NVDA) Jensen Huang and Meta‘s (META) Mark Zuckerberg. Microsoft is actively pursuing this frontier, noting in November 2024 its plans to co-design and build what it calls “the world’s most powerful quantum machine,” slated for release later in the year.
Gates acknowledges the complexity involved in both constructing quantum computers and developing the software to leverage their unique capabilities. He points out that while Microsoft has been a long-time player in this space, alongside Google (GOOG) and numerous other entities, the journey is fraught with challenges. However, his confidence stems from the progress Microsoft has made, which he reviews regularly, indicating that while Huang’s estimate of 15 to 30 years might hold true, there’s also room for acceleration in quantum computing advancements.
The differing opinions have had a tangible impact on the quantum computing sector. Nvidia’s Huang, during CES, suggested that a useful quantum computer might be 15 to 30 years away, while Zuckerberg expressed skepticism about its near-term practicality, seeing it as more than a decade out. These statements have contributed to a volatile market for quantum computing stocks like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), which have seen significant declines year-to-date, 10% and 31% respectively, despite their impressive gains over the last year.
In an another YF interview last month, Rigetti Computing’s CEO, Subodh Kulkarni, provided a more grounded perspective for investors, noting that the company is currently in an investment phase, with government contracts forming the bulk of their sales. He anticipates that within three to five years, if their development timeline holds, Rigetti could approach cash flow break-even, with profitability expected to follow.
While the quantum computing landscape is marked by uncertainty, Gates also touched on the more predictable and rapidly advancing field of artificial intelligence (AI). He sees AI development as a more immediate and impactful area for businesses, suggesting that within the same timeframe of three to five years, AI technologies will become extremely powerful, potentially transforming numerous industries before quantum computing reaches its full potential. This juxtaposition of quantum computing’s speculative future against AI’s more certain trajectory underscores the dynamic nature of tech innovation, where breakthroughs in one area might accelerate or even redefine expectations in another. Saying we live in an exciting time would be an understatement.
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