- Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock, down 0.77% to $120.74, has dropped 13% month-to-month and 10% year-to-date, falling below key moving averages due to China trade war concerns and AI overbuilding fears, though Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross sees it as a “healthy consolidation” with an oversold RSI of 47.
- CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC event on March 18 and analyst meeting on March 19 are critical, with investors seeking details on the Rubin chip’s edge over Blackwell, the AI market size, and strategies to offset China risks.
- Despite volatility, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya holds a Buy rating with a $200 target (68% upside), arguing fundamentals will prevail as the stock sits below its historical 25x P/E trough, with Ross predicting an upward move ahead.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock, last trading down 0.88% at $120.60, has stumbled into unfamiliar territory in 2025, shedding over 13% month-to-month and 10% year-to-date, as investors grapple with concerns over China exposure amid President Trump’s trade war and fears of an AI infrastructure glut. The company, a titan in the AI chip realm, finds itself below its $127.50, 200-day moving average – a stark technical signal of waning momentum – compounded by a cautious Q1 margin outlook that has failed to reassure the market. Yet, Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross, a highly regarded technical strategist, sees a silver lining in the recent pullback. Speaking to YF, Ross described it as a “healthy consolidation” and highlighted the stock’s RSI dropping to 47 — a notable decline from 63 when the stock peaked in January around CEO Jensen Huang’s CES keynote.
The spotlight now turns to Huang, whose upcoming GTC event on March 18 in San Jose, followed by a financial analyst meeting on March 19, could serve as a pivotal moment to reverse Nvidia’s fortunes. Investors are hungry for specifics: a deep dive into how the next-generation Rubin chip outstrips the current Blackwell benchmark, a refreshed take on the total AI market opportunity to counter overbuilding anxieties, and a strategic pivot to offset anticipated losses in China due to trade tensions. Ross, with over 30 years of market analysis under his belt, predicts the next move is upward, bolstered by technicals suggesting the stock has room to rebound from its current slump, a view echoed by Bank of America’s (BAC) Vivek Arya, who maintains a ‘Buy’ rating and a $200 price target—implying a 66% upside from $120.60.
Despite the year’s rocky start, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain a focal point for optimism. Arya argues that while near-term volatility and China-related headlines may weigh on sentiment, the stock’s position below its historical trough 25x price-to-earnings ratio signals undervaluation, with long-term growth drivers poised to reassert themselves. The GTC event looms as a make-or-break opportunity for Huang to restore confidence, blending technical innovation with a clear vision to navigate geopolitical and market headwinds. For a company accustomed to dominating the AI narrative, 2025’s 10% decline marks a rare detour, but the combination of oversold indicators and a high-stakes catalyst suggests Nvidia could soon reclaim its upward trajectory.
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