GDP: Revisions and Forecasts

There’s been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1]. e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

…The increase in September was more than accounted for by a large positive contribution from nonfarm inventories (slower inventory paring in September than August). The level of monthly GDP in September was 0.9% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Average monthly increases of 0.3% per month during the fourth quarter support our latest tracking forecast of 3.3% growth in the fourth quarter.

The series are plotted below.

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 10/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 11/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q3 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

With regard to 2009Q3, the Macroeconomic Advisers estimate suggests the 2009Q3 second release will contain a downward revision from 13014.2 billion Ch.2005$ (SAAR) to 12984.6 billion. The e-forecasting estimate suggests roughly no change, at 13014 billion.