I was surfing the MIT CRE web site this afternoon, and the following picture caught my eye:
The MIT index is a hedonic transactions based index based sales from the NCREIF index, and it attempts to find price movements of a “typical” property. The interesting thing is that the Moody’s Commercial Property Index is still falling:
So the question is whether the MIT TPI is a leading indicator. My sense is actually that Apartments and Industrial Real Estate will come out of this thing earlier than other generic types, but I am not sure that anything is really at bottom yet. In particular, the MIT folks are showing that demand and supply are coming closer to lining up, but there is still excess supply nationally in the industrial, office and retail sectors.