A group of commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) are urging clients to short gold, one of the best performing assets this year.
Bullion has gained about 13.5 percent year-to-date as worries over negative interest rates, weaker oil prices, and concerns over fragile balance sheets in European banks have shaken nervous investors out of equities and into safe-haven gold. Prices hit a one-year high of $1,260.60 per troy ounce last week.
But Goldman said in a seven-page note entitled “nothing to fear but fear itself,” that financial markets have overreacted and gold prices are due for a correction.
“Fears around China, oil and negative interest rates have likely been overstated in the gold price and other financial markets,” a team at the bank, led by Jeffrey Currie and Max Layton, said late Monday.
“We are recommending shorting gold through a GSCI-style rolling index,” they said, referring to the S&P GSCI commodity index.
Goldman expects prices to slump back to $1,100/oz in three months and $1,000 an ounce in 12 months. Gold was last trading at 1,215.32/oz.
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