Spiky Market Triangulating on a Direction

Mother Market is a non-linear chaotic system that runs most efficiently at the edge of chaos, which it is doing right now. In more prosaic terms, the recent spikes denote distribution – movements from one opinion to another – with short squeezes and rapid pops along the way. That is how the edge of chaos looks. At some point it will find order and pick a direction, and I think it did that this morning – up! Duh …

Later today I will get some insight from Prechter et al. but I want to share a perspective of Tony Cherniawski in an email he sent to his followers. The chart shows us in a triangle. Triangles are useful indicators of order out of chaos, since they always come as the penultimate (the next to last) wave pattern. This one will be followed by a final break up, which again happened today, so Tony’s pre-marekt call was spot on. (Overnight the emini had also signaled a strong open today.)

His target for the break before the open was Dow9785, which we crushed through, with a secondary limit of 9834, which we slightly broke thru and faded off. One possible count had been nested waves 1-2, but breaking that level broke that count. (Yesterday the STU had dismissed that count as unlikely since the inside wave 2 – the last four days – was too large compared with the outside wave 2 candidate.) Nevertheless the triangle would say this move is the final one.

The major alt count is the drop off the recent highs was an X wave, and we are or soon will be in the early stages of a third zigzag up. The wave count is ambiguous as to whether X has ended. It may be Tony’s triangle (which he notes is not that visible in other indexes, making it a questionable count) denotes a B wave of an ABC inside that larger X wave, and we could fade below the recent highs after the C ends. I find this count curiously interesting because it means Mother Market will fool the maximum number of traders: the bulls will pile on thinking Dow10K is again in sights, and the bears will have backed off their short positions.

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About Duncan Davidson 228 Articles

Affiliation: NetService Ventures

Duncan is an advisor to NetService Ventures, where he focuses on digital media and the mobile Internet.

Previously he was at four start-ups: Xumii, a mobile social service based on a Social Addressbook; SkyPilot Networks, the performance leader of wireless mesh systems for last-mile access, where he was the founding CEO; Covad Communications (Amex: DVW, $9B market cap at the peak), the leading independent DSL access provider, where he was the founding Chairman; InterTrust Technologies ($9B market cap at the peak), the pioneer in digital rights management technologies, now owned by Sony and Philips, where he was SVP Business Development and the pitchman for the IPO.

Before these ventures, Duncan was a partner at Cambridge Venture Partners, an early-stage venture firm, and managing partner of Gemini McKenna, a joint venture between Regis McKenna's marketing firm and Gemini Consulting, the global management consulting arm of Cap Gemini.

He serves on the board or is an adviser to Aggregate Knowledge (content discovery), Livescribe (digital pen), AllVoices (citizen journalism), Xumii (mobile social addressbook), Verismo (Internet settop box), and Widevine (DRM for IPTV).

Visit: Duncan Davidson's Blogs

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