The Increasing Number of Euro Fools

Via the Irish Economy Blog I find this very interesting interview of Mario Draghi with Der Spiegel. I was first surprised by the aggressive responses from Draghi every time he is asked about the German negative assessment of recent ECB monetary policy. I like his honesty and clarity when he asserts that all German fears about increasing inflation in the Euro area have turned to be wrong. Here is one of his answers:

“DRAGHI: No, but the fears felt by some sectors of the public in Germany have not been confirmed. What haven’t we been accused of? When we offered European banks additional liquidity two years ago, it was said there would be a high rate of inflation. Nothing has happened. When I made my comment in London, there was talk of a violation of the central bank’s mandate. But we had made ​​clear from the beginning that we are moving within our mandate. Each time it was said, for goodness’ sake, this Italian is ruining Germany. There was this perverse Angst that things were turning bad, but the opposite has happened: inflation is low and uncertainty reduced.”

Of course, the journalist is not convinced and continues asking questions about the potential damage that ECB policies are inflicting in Germany. He follows with a set of questions on how the low interest rate policy of the ECB is hurting savers in Germany. Here is the first one:

“SPIEGEL: In Germany, ECB policy is unpopular because you have now pushed the interest rates for investments down so far that they are often no longer enough to compensate for inflation. In other words, only fools save.”

This question reflects a really poor level of understanding of some basic economic principles. The statement “only fools save” can only be consistent with the data if the number of fools has increased dramatically in recent years. Interest rates are low because saving is high (and investment is low). Not the other way around.

And here is the next one:

“SPIEGEL: People can see in the statements from their life insurance companies that they are getting ever smaller payouts from year to year because of the interest rates. The truth is that savers are paying the price for rescuing the euro.”

Savers are paying the price of fear and a long-lasting crisis. Both have reduced spending and as a result the equilibrium (real) interest rate. And more so in countries that are perceived as safe (as in the case of Germany).

Draghi is good at responding to both of these questions but I find his tone less aggressive than when he answers the questions on inflation. Maybe central bankers need to be more explicit about their (limited) influence on interest rates. The (wrong) perception among many is that interest rates, both nominal and real, for all maturities and risk profiles are determined by central bank policies.

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About Antonio Fatás 136 Articles

Affiliation: INSEAD

Antonio Fatás is professor of Economics at INSEAD. He is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research in London and has worked as external consultant for international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the World Bank.

He teaches the macroeconomics core course in the MBA program as well as different modules on the global macroeconomic environment in Executive Education. His research is focused on the study of business cycles, fiscal policy and the economics of European integration. His articles appear in academic journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, European Economic Review or Economic Policy.

Professor Fatás earned his M.A. and Ph.D. from Harvard University, and M.S. from Universidad de Valencia.


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