World markets are mostly red overnight as Europe broke its win streak and Asia is trading off across the board. After yesterday’s modest sell-off, today feels like the day the bears could flex their muscles a little bit. Cisco (CSCO) is also adding some pressure with news it is laying off 4,000 employees, or 5% of its workforce, amid economic uncertainty.
Technically, there have been some signs to take risk down and spots for adjustments. One spot for adjustments was when we broke below S&P 1698 and stayed below it, Then the last few sessions we’ve seen some high beta names get weaker with some key groups breaking levels (clues to take more risk down).
This morning we are opening below the level that I’ve mentioned a few times. A close below this floor, could bring out more sellers for August-September. A potent close below 1676-1682 could trigger move to the 50-day around 1655. Many people are calling for a “crash” or a 15%-20% correction. We will take it step by step, but if you are in the right stance, you don’t have to “guess” – you measure and test levels along the way and embrace volatility.
Tech has been a bit of mixed bag, as it has been most of this year.
AAPL a great spot to be since the earnings report. A nice gap up around $440 with commitment, then many spots to add and trade around. Yesterday Leon Cooperman joined the news flow disclosing his stake in it, helping to push it above $500. It’s a bit overbought now so could use some time, but it’s nice to have it back in the mix. We did do a nice bullish video on it before the Icahn and Cooperman news hit.
NFLX has been acting well since holding $240 and breaking above $254ish. Just be light on your feet with the market pressure.
GOOG has been grinding lower since its outside day on August 5th around $907. It did also break $885 as another adjustment point. Next major big support is $845-855.
AMZN has been out of play since earnings as well, grinding lower. The 50-day is $290.20. It will be interesting to see how it handles that spot.
BIDU has made a huge move in the last month. If it were to break below $136ish I would use high level stops.
LNKD got hit a little yesterday as the market was pressured. If pressure continues, perhaps use $233ish as a pivot for the short-term.
FB broke its upper level around $37.70 – a spot some used as a high level stop. It lost the 8-day and the 21 day is down at $34.70ish. I think that could be a nice spot to re-enter if we see it.
TSLA lost its earnings gap and 8-day MA. The next spot to look for opportunity is the 21-day at $135.61.
Metals continue to act better
SLV filled the gap from June 20th at $20.53 on Monday, then had nice follow-through yesterday as it digested the weekend’s gains well. It wasn’t an easy ride but it has rewarded those who stick with the trade from June 27th’s lows. The next resistance area is $21.40. After that we have the 100-day at $21.61. That $17.75-18.25 level was a much better buy than a sell.
GLD saw a nice gap up on Monday, then retraced lower on Tuesday to fill this gap to the down side. Yesterday it woke up again to climb back to $129 level. It could see some upside follow-through in the coming sessions. Short-term resistance is standing at $129.71 from Monday’s high. A break above this could open the door for a retest of the 100-day at $133.91
Bears do have the right formula today to pressure today as you have CSCO and WMT negative, World markets lower, and the Egypt death toll rising. We know our levels and can trade accordingly. The question for those like me who are coming in net short is, do you press or cover? Pressing hasn’t worked for most of 2013
Disclosure: Scott Redler is long GLD, BAC, IBM puts, SPY puts. Short SPY.