Duncan Davidson
Duncan Davidson's Latest Articles | 211
Trendlines and Timing Point to a January Top
The seasonal pattern has a general rise in stocks from November to May, and we are seeing the market so far conform to that pattern. Usually within it is a February... Read »
Santa Rally in the Nick of Time
We didn’t see a rally from the 2d week of December on, when it often arrives and shows strength. Instead, we have started the Classic Santa Rally, which comes... Read »
This Time the Tech Boom is Driven By Reality
Last time, the dot-com boom was driven by a frenzy over gaining eyeballs. Valuations went through the roof well before revenues. This time the hot companies are... Read »
Dollar Double Tests the Trendline
At the start of February, on Groundhog Day, the Dollar came down and tested a trendline that has provided resistance since Bear Stearns Day in 2008 (the day Bear... Read »
Get Ready to Party Like it is 1995
1995 was one of my favorite years. Silicon Valley had been in a funk for over a decade, with a fading memory of the last tech bubble, the PC IPO craze that flamed... Read »
Inside the Numbers: ISM Reports and the Great Margin Squeeze
Richard Fisher, head of the Dallas Fed, flagged the risk of monetizing government debt and bashed the government for out of control spending. He felt the Fed was... Read »
You Know Global Warming is Over When …
MSNBC (not Fox!) blames the food riots in Egypt on “speculation” not Global Warming (ie. food shortages due to unusual weather such as the Russian summer... Read »
What the Big Mac Index Says About Inflation
I was shocked to hear from a friend that a Big Mac in Philly now costs $7. I haven’t kept tabs, being long-past my kids’ Happy Meals days. The Big Mac... Read »
BRIC-A-Brack
The BRICs are a’ breaking, with three of four sharply down and below their 200 DMA, indicating a trend change to a protracted bear market. Russia is now largely... Read »
QE2, Inflation and the Great Margin Squeeze
Don’t confuse speculation with inflation Global food prices are soaring. Market speculation fueled by QE2 as well as one-off events like the Great Queensland... Read »







