Housing CPI Bizzare

This picture shows the housing component of inflation (blue line), compared to house price changes (red line). As housing prices went through their bubble, the effect on CPI didn’t budge much from 3%, whereas the recent crash brought it down to zero. See Dr.HousingBubble for more.

Things like oil, corn, and gold have skyrocket recently, but I’m told that things like clothing, ‘food away from home’ and ‘shelter’ are keeping inflation low. Perhaps. But I’m with Bill Gross, who highlights the gov’t dilemma given its true debt-to-GDP ratio is 500%:

Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies–inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.

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About Eric Falkenstein 136 Articles

Eric Falkenstein is an economist who specializes in quantitative issues in finance: risk management, long/short equity investing, default modeling, etc.

Eric received his Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University , 1994 and his B.A. in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, 1987

He is the author of the 2009 book Finding Alpha.

Visit: Eric Falkenstein's Website

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