3. The Democrats will NOT lose control of either house of Congress.
It’s become quite trendy to postulate on the mid-term elections and a potential 1994-style collapse of the Democratic majority. Macro Man sees three problems with that thesis. First, the Republican revolution of 1994 occurred after a lengthy period of Democratic Congressional rule. By 1994, it had been a decade since the GOP controlled the Senate and 48 years since they’d enjoyed a majority in the House. This time around, it’s been a scant 4 years since the GOP ceded control. Second, it’s the economy, stupid. The first half of the year should see a return to job growth and further impact from last year’s stimulus package. At least superficially, therefore, the economic news should get a lot better. Finally, it’s not like the Republicans are offering a lot, either. The fact that Sarah Palin is still knocking about is evidence of the dearth of quality in the GOP “brain” trust, and it doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect the electorate to recall why they voted the Republicans out of Congress in the first place.