Speculative tech stocks tend to do well coming out of a recession, so we may get a barn-burner coming out of this great Recession. I remember the PC Bubble in 1980-83, as we came out of (twice!) a severe double-dip recession. For those who follow Kondratieff Winter, when we come out some new factor of production will drive Kondratieff Spring in the next cycle. Many VCs are betting on cleantech, but the recent ClimateGate scandal puts a bit of a chill on that.
Morgan Stanley put out a report today touting the Mobile Internet. I have personally invested in this category, and been chairman of a mobile Internet venture, so I already believe this is one of the key drivers of the next venture wave up. The report (actually several reports, all downloadable from this link) makes a few key points, including:
- It is bigger than the desktop Internet
- New winners will emerge
- It is ramping faster than the desktop Internet
- Emerging markets will be huge, leafrogging poor landline infrastructure
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I guess you must think that mobile internet will somehow get people to spend money on things that they would otherwise not buy. At this moment the people who have money already have everything. The rest of the people are not spending no matter where they get online.