- Netflix (NFLX) is projected to report $10.54 billion in revenue, or $5.74 per share, for Q1, with analysts viewing it as resilient amid a 60% recession probability in 2025.
- JPMorgan lowered its price target to $1,025 but maintains an ‘Overweight’ rating, while Morgan Stanley (MS) sees the stock’s recent drop as a buying opportunity.
- Despite macro headwinds, Netflix’s 47.5% stock rise over 12 months and streaming model position it to weather economic challenges better than e-commerce or digital advertising.
Netflix (NFLX), valued at $393 billion, is set to release its first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET. Analysts project revenue of $10.54 billion, translating to a consensus of $5.74 per share, reflecting confidence in the streaming giant’s ability to navigate turbulent economic waters. Despite a recent 60% recession probability flagged by JPMorgan (JPM) economists for 2025, alongside expected U.S. real GDP declines in the year’s second half, Netflix is seen as a beacon of resilience. JPMorgan, while trimming its price target from $1,150 to $1,025, maintains an ‘Overweight’ rating, citing streaming subscriptions as less vulnerable compared to e-commerce, online travel, or digital advertising. Morgan Stanley (MS) echoes this optimism, labeling Netflix a top pick and viewing the share price dip to $918.29 – down $2.88 on Friday – following President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement as a buying opportunity.
The broader economic landscape presents challenges, with tariffs and macro headwinds prompting JPMorgan to lower estimates across 25 internet companies. Yet, Netflix’s position in the streaming sector, alongside cloud services and on-demand platforms, is expected to hold firm. Its stock has already climbed 47.5% over the past 12 months and nearly 10% in the last three, signaling investor confidence in its growth trajectory. This resilience stems from Netflix’s global subscriber base and diversified content strategy, which cushion it against economic downturns that might erode discretionary spending elsewhere. However, the company is not immune to pressures—rising content costs and potential subscriber churn in price-sensitive markets loom as risks. Still, innovations like ad-supported tiers and live event streaming bolster its adaptability, positioning Netflix to capitalize on shifting consumer habits. As the earnings report nears, the focus will be on whether Netflix can sustain its momentum and reinforce its status as a defensive play in an uncertain 2025 economy.
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