Why Job Growth Might Be Better Than It Seems

“Whatever happens tomorrow, it’s worth keeping something in mind: The official government statistics are probably understating job growth right now. That tends to be the pattern after recessions end. As the economy is starting to add jobs again, the Bureau of Labor Statistics understates job growth. And the opposite happens during recessions. Then, the government understates job losses.”

~David Leonhardt in the NY Times Economix blog

MP: As the chart above shows, the BLS revisions to employment levels are generally positive during expansions (inital reports of job gains are later revised upward) and negative during recessions (initial reports are revised downwar), and this pattern was consistent following the last two recessions.

About Mark J. Perry 262 Articles

Affiliation: University of Michigan

Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.

He holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University in Washington, D.C. and an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota.

Since 1997, Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan.

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