Dow May Bounce Back After May’s Brutal Performance

May was a brutal month for stocks. The 7.9 percent decline in the Dow ranks as the sixth worst in history but a report from JP Morgan shows that could bode well for the summer.

The table shows the 10 worst May declines in Dow history followed by subsequent June and July performance. Combined, the average decline for the 10 worst Mays was 12 percent, then a 13.6 percent average bounce back (4.2 percent in June, 9.4 percent in July) over the next two months.

The Dow has traded up during June-July 8 out of 9 times (89 percent) when following one of the worst Mays in terms of performance. The only year to not see a June-July bounce back was 1962 when the market dropped an additional 11 percent.

On average, the Dow has traded positive 59 percent of the time in June-July dating back to 1897.

We haven’t seen anything resembling a bounce back yet but market hangovers from a bad May have tended to linger eight days into the following month. The worst was in 1932 when the market didn’t recover well into July.

While historical data certainly doesn’t ensure how June-July 2010 will shake out, statistics like these can help our portfolio team take advantage of market cycles.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry.

About Frank Holmes 265 Articles

Affiliation: U.S. Global Investors

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company’s funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper’s top-performing global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper’s top-performing gold fund, the second time in four years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008 Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.”

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.

Visit: U.S. Global Investors

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