Gold Shows No Sign of a Bubble Compared to Tech and Oil Bubbles

Since gold’s bull run began a decade ago, many people have asked me whether the metal was in a bubble, despite the fact that there were many drivers in place for gold.

Here’s another comparison that answers this classic question.

Research firm Commerzbank’s strategists recently compared the price of gold starting in 2002 to the price of Brent crude oil starting in 1998 and the NASDAQ Composite from 1990. Immediately following each index’s record highs, oil and tech stocks declined sharply. Within nine months, tech stocks had halved in price, while it took only three months for oil to lose half its price, says Commerzbank. You can see the dramatic rise and fall of each index on the chart below.

In contrast to oil and tech, gold has been level-headed over the past decade. Nearly 20 months after its peak, gold has fallen only about 25 percent, and its path remains in line with Brent and the NASDAQ after their bubbles burst.

In Commerzbank’s opinion, a comparison between the current situation in gold and the former bubbles is superfluous at best.

About Frank Holmes 282 Articles

Affiliation: U.S. Global Investors

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company’s funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper’s top-performing global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper’s top-performing gold fund, the second time in four years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008 Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.”

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.

Visit: U.S. Global Investors

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*