- Goldman Sachs (GS) reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating and maintained a price target of $294 per share for Apple (AAPL), highlighting a 9.2% year-over-year growth in foreign-branded phone shipments in China during February 2025, a recovery from January 2025’s 21% decline, driven by the iPhone 16e launch on February 28.
- Despite a 40% month-over-month shipment drop in February 2025 outperforming the historical average of 67% from 2020-2024, foreign brands like Apple lost market share to Chinese-branded phones, which grew 44% year-over-year.
- Analyst Michael Ng views the February data – marking the highest foreign-branded shipment growth since June 2024’s 12% – as encouraging, signaling Apple’s resilience in a competitive Chinese market.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is doubling down on its bullish stance toward Apple (APPL), maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as fresh data from China paints a complex but promising picture for the tech giant. Analyst Michael Ng points to a notable 9.2% year-over-year increase in foreign-branded phone shipments in February 2025, a sharp rebound from the 21% year-over-year decline recorded in January 2025. This uptick, the strongest since June 2024’s 12% year-over-year growth, signals a potential resurgence in demand for Apple’s offerings, particularly following the February 28, 2025, release of the iPhone 16e. Ng suggests that while some of this momentum may stem from inventory sell-in ahead of the launch, the figures still outpace historical norms, with February’s month-over-month shipment drop of 40% far better than the 2020-2024 average decline of 67%.
The broader context, however, reveals a fiercely competitive landscape. Chinese-branded phones surged 44% year-over-year in February 2025, capturing market share from foreign players like Apple. This disparity underscores the growing dominance of domestic manufacturers in China, fueled by innovation, aggressive pricing, and nationalistic consumer trends. Yet, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Apple’s trajectory, viewing the February shipment growth as a positive indicator of resilience. The iPhone 16e, with its likely enhancements in design and functionality, appears to have sparked renewed interest among Chinese consumers, even as Apple navigates a market where foreign brands are losing ground.
Apple’s performance in China has long been a bellwether for its global success, and these latest numbers suggest a stabilization after a rocky start to 2025. The 9.2% year-over-year growth in February contrasts sharply with January’s 21% drop, hinting at a successful reception for the iPhone 16e launch. Ng’s analysis highlights that while inventory dynamics may have inflated the figures, the month-over-month improvement over historical averages reflects underlying strength. Against the backdrop of a 44% surge in Chinese-branded phones, Apple’s ability to hold its own – bolstered by Goldman Sachs’ confidence – points to a strategic adaptability that could sustain its premium positioning. As the world’s largest smartphone market continues to evolve, these metrics reinforce why Goldman Sachs sees Apple as a standout investment despite intensifying local competition.
Price Action: As of the latest check, Apple’s stock rose 1.32%, reaching $220.75. The Cupertino-based iPhone maker, with a market cap of $3.27 trillion, has seen a 12% decline year-to-date but remains up 30% year-over-year.
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