- Andrew Rogers, with over twenty years of transportation and policy expertise, warned on Bloomberg Technology that new 25% auto tariffs threaten the EV industry’s predictability, already impacting sales and stock prices across sectors, despite goals to reshore supply chains.
- Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) hold advantages over legacy automakers, but face challenges as tariffs could raise EV prices by $12,000, risking reduced demand and industry contraction, while $300 billion in recent EV investments hangs in the balance.
- Rogers highlighted industry uncertainty, with automakers weighing whether to absorb costs, pass them to consumers, or reshore supply chains—a process complicated by global dependencies and a lack of clear policy signals.
Andrew Rogers, senior vice president at Boundary Stone Partners, appeared on Bloomberg Technology to dissect the implications of President Trump’s newly imposed 25% auto tariffs, drawing on his over twenty years of expertise in transportation, infrastructure, and policy implementation. He painted a picture of an automotive industry reeling from uncertainty, where the ripple effects are already evident in plunging stock prices and sales across multiple sectors, including tier-one suppliers. Rogers emphasized that the tariffs, while aimed at the laudable goal of reshoring domestic supply chains – a priority echoed in policies from Trump’s first term through the Biden administration – clash with the practical reality of a globalized auto industry that has moved far beyond the self-contained production lines of the past.
For newer electric vehicle (EV) makers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), Rogers highlighted a nuanced landscape. He noted that Tesla’s stock often trades on factors untethered from fundamentals, placing it in a unique category, while Rivian and similar players hold an advantage over legacy automakers still building out their EV supply chains. Yet, the tariffs threaten to upend this edge, with Rogers pointing to the $300 billion invested in the EV sector over recent years – 70% of which is already allocated to facilities coming online – fueled by clear signals from Washington via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Inflation Reduction Act, and CHIPS Act. The introduction of what he called “reactionary and less targeted” trade policies risks eroding the confidence needed for automakers to undertake the years-long, investment-heavy process of reshoring, leaving them with three stark options: absorb the costs, pass them on to consumers, or commit to a daunting supply chain overhaul.
The stakes are particularly high for EVs, where supply chains depend heavily on foreign-sourced magnets, rare earths, and minerals, driving projected price hikes of $12,000 per vehicle—outpacing the $5,000 to $8,000 increase expected for the average car. Rogers warned that such cost increases could dampen demand, leaving more cars unsold, threatening jobs, and triggering industry contraction at a critical moment when investment momentum is vital. Reflecting on questions flooding in from industry contacts, he identified their top concern: “Is this real?” With his extensive background as a former deputy federal highway administrator and chief counsel on federal highways, Rogers urged taking the administration’s stated intentions seriously, while acknowledging that the precise shape of this new reality remains unwritten, blending short-term disruption with long-term uncertainty for Tesla, Rivian, and the broader automotive ecosystem.
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