- Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster on CNBC’s ‘Fast Money’ predicted a $1.8-$2 billion Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 revenue beat, driven by improved Blackwell supply, with the CFO’s letter on 2025 demand – potentially sold out for four quarters – set to reassure or rattle AI investors.
- Munster highlighted DeepSeek’s boost to hyperscaler CapEx (up from 20% to over 40% for 2025), countering market funk with a view that falling inference costs (10-12x per year) and hardware demand signal two more strong years for the AI trade, including Nvidia.
- He sees Apple (AAPL) as a future beneficiary of cheaper AI inference, enhancing developer appeal for Apple Intelligence in six months, while Nvidia’s earnings could affirm a prolonged hardware boom despite current market skepticism.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock climbed $3.76, or 2.97%, to $130.39 in premarket trading Wednesday, a precursor perhaps to its Q4 earnings that Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, unpacked on CNBC’s ‘Fast Money,’ spotlighting a potential $1.8 to $2 billion revenue beat fueled by a supply chain thaw over the past one to two months. Munster emphasized the real prize lies beyond the numbers—in the CFO’s letter accompanying the earnings release, where commentary on Blackwell’s supply-demand balance could signal a sold-out 2025, stretching four quarters out, a reassurance for AI investors amid a market funk, or a vague “several quarters” outlook that might jolt sentiment. He aligns with Wedbush’s bullish call, tying Nvidia’s edge to hyperscaler CapEx surging from a pre-DeepSeek 20% to over 40% for 2025, a shift underscoring hardware’s enduring runway despite the Chinese startup’s disruption.
DeepSeek’s shadow loomed large in the discussion, and Munster expects Nvidia to address it head-on, reinforcing hyperscaler spending trends that defy fears of an AI hardware slowdown—costs of inference crashing 10-12x annually, per Sam Altman’s post-DeepSeek take, could unlock profound impacts, extending the AI trade’s vitality for two more years. Nvidia’s $3.2 trillion market cap and 150% plus revenue growth anchor its dominance, yet Munster sees the stock’s muted reaction to DeepSeek as a misread—consensus views the startup as a hardware boon, not a bust, even if the market hasn’t bought in, buoyed by supply improvements since Blackwell’s rocky debut. The broader AI narrative, he argues, hinges on this hardware buildout and plummeting compute costs, a combo that could lift not just Nvidia but latecomers like Apple (AAPL), where cheaper inference might spark developer traction for Apple Intelligence, though tangible gains may lag six months.
Munster’s unwavering bullishness – unshaken by a choppy AI trade – rests on data points like gross margins and hyperscaler intent, with Nvidia’s earnings poised to either cement its lead or expose cracks in a high-stakes moment. Apple, despite a lackluster shareholder meeting, stands to benefit as inference costs drop, potentially revitalizing its AI play, though Munster pegs that shift as a 2025 story. Nvidia’s Q4 could thus ripple far beyond its own ledger, offering a litmus test for an AI ecosystem where supply stabilization and cost dynamics promise to redefine winners, with Munster betting on a robust hardware tailwind through 2026.
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