- Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) shares rose 1.23% to $60.00 premarket, up 95% year-to-date, driven by its AI server market role and optimism about meeting a February 25 Nasdaq (COMP) filing deadline, despite a 51% drop from its March peak.
- The company has faced turbulence since August, with a Hindenburg Research report sparking a DOJ probe, a missed annual filing, and Ernst & Young’s resignation as auditor, yet it projects $40 billion in FY26 sales, surpassing the $31 billion consensus.
- While the market assumes compliance will keep SMCI on Nasdaq, past delisting in 2019 and a resolved SEC probe in 2020 highlight a pattern of issues, tempering investor confidence even as the stock rides an AI-driven rally.
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) shares edged up 1.23% to $60.00 in premarket trading on Friday, reflecting a market cautiously optimistic about the company’s looming February 25 deadline to file overdue financial reports and maintain its Nasdaq (COMP) listing. The stock has surged an impressive 78.15% over the past month and nearly 95% year-to-date, a rally fueled by the company’s role in supplying high-powered servers amid the AI boom, though it remains 51% below its $122.90 March peak when AI fervor was at its height. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson notes that the market largely assumes compliance will be achieved, a sentiment baked into the current price, bolstered by Super Micro’s November appointment of a new auditor and its reiterated confidence last week in meeting the Nasdaq requirements.
The company’s path to this point has been rocky, with turbulence igniting in August when Hindenburg Research released a scathing report alleging accounting irregularities, triggering a U.S. Department of Justice probe and amplifying investor unease. That same month, Super Micro missed its deadline to file its annual financial report, followed by the October resignation of Ernst & Young LLP as its auditor over governance and transparency concerns, piling pressure on a stock already navigating the fallout from the Hindenburg accusations. Jim Kelleher of Argus Research captures this volatility, describing the stock as still on a “roller coaster ride” that began last year, maintaining a short-term ‘Hold’ rating until all issues are resolved.
Despite these challenges, Super Micro’s long-term outlook offers a glimmer of upside, with last week’s projection of $40 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending June 2026 – well above the $31 billion analyst consensus – driving recent gains even amid weaker near-term results. This ambitious forecast underscores the company’s strong position in the AI infrastructure market, a sector that has propelled its 95% yearly climb. However, the specter of delisting looms large, echoing a 2019 episode when Super Micro was removed from Nasdaq for similar filing delays, only to return in 2020 after settling an SEC accounting probe with a $17.5 million penalty without admitting fault. Bryson points out this recurring pattern, suggesting that investors can’t ignore the possibility of history repeating itself, which could cap enthusiasm even if compliance is achieved, balancing the promise of growth against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty.
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