- Analysts are highly optimistic about Walmart (WMT), with 28 out of 31 giving a ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’ rating, expecting a 4% revenue increase to $179.42 billion and a 7% rise in EPS to $0.64 for Q4 fiscal 2025.
- Despite the optimism, the average price target for Walmart stock matches its last Friday’s close at $104.04, indicating caution possibly due to an 83% stock rise over the past year and anticipation for fiscal 2026 guidance.
- Several analysts have raised their price targets, but there’s a consensus that Walmart might provide conservative forecasts for fiscal 2026 amidst economic uncertainties, with potential implications for market share relative to Amazon (AMZN), which reported higher quarterly revenue.
As Walmart (WMT) gears up to release its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 20, anticipation is building across the retail sector. Analysts are largely optimistic about Walmart stock, with 28 out of 31 from Marketbeat assigning a ‘Buy’ rating, 2 giving a ‘Hold’ rating, and 1 offering a ‘Strong Buy’ rating. This collective confidence is mirrored in the expected financial outcomes, with projections estimating a revenue of $179.42 billion for the quarter, marking a near 4% increase from the previous year. Earnings per share are also forecasted to rise by 7% to $0.64.
Despite these upbeat projections, the average price target for Walmart’s stock remains at $104.04 — the exact closing price from last Friday — suggesting a more cautious stance among analysts. This tempered enthusiasm might stem from Walmart’s significant stock performance over the last year, having risen by 83%, leading investors and analysts to await Walmart’s guidance for the upcoming fiscal year.
The market’s expectations are further nuanced by recent analyses from firms like Morgan Stanley (MS), Deutsche Bank (DB), JPMorgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC), all of whom have increased their price targets, with some optimism for Walmart’s market share growth. Notably, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Deutsche Bank have set their sights at $115, while JPMorgan and Bank of America have pegged theirs at $112 and $120, respectively. However, there’s an acknowledgment from analysts at Melius Research and Morgan Stanley that Walmart might adopt a conservative approach in its fiscal 2026 forecasts, a strategy it has employed in the past. This cautious outlook is set against a backdrop of broader economic uncertainties, including potential shifts in tariff and deportation policies, which might influence consumer spending and supply chain logistics.
Interestingly, if Walmart’s revenue, as noted by Investopedia, matches these forecasts, it might be the first time the company falls behind Amazon in quarterly revenue, with Amazon (AMZN) having already reported $187.8 billion for its corresponding period. This comparison underscores the competitive landscape of retail, where even giants like Walmart are closely watched for any signs of shifting market dominance.
As Walmart’s shares experienced a slight dip of about 1% on Friday, following a record high close of $105.05 the day before, the market’s reaction to the upcoming earnings report will be telling. Investors and analysts alike will be keen to see not only if Walmart beats the fourth-quarter estimates but also how the company positions itself for the future amidst various economic and policy headwinds.
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