While many are waiting for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to recover from their current lows, Arthur Hayes believes it could take months before we see a major movement.
In his latest blog post, the BitMex co-founder cited recent market events that have traders on edge — including pressure coming from the Fed’s rate hikes as well as rising inflation rates- the highest in 40 years — to explain why he sees little chance either token will make a sudden jump up in value anytime soon.
Hayes, however, outlined how he thinks Bitcoin and Ethereum could start recovering. But such an event, he notes, would require time to play out because of weak hands in the market.
Hayes explains that as BTC and ETH continue to fluctuate in value, many short-term holders are facing losses. This has led him to argue that any recovery in the market could be adversely affected as these traders, who are sitting on positions that are down 50% to 90%, sell their holdings to regain some of their investment, rather than hold until profitability.
“This choppy price action will eviscerate the capital of short-term traders who half-heartedly believe this is the bottom. These folks want to catch the knife and exit for a quick profit,” Hayes said.
Hayes also touched on Terra’s recent sale of 80,000 Bitcoins, saying that after analyzing the nature in which they were sold, he is “even more confident” that the $25.000 -$27.000 zone for BTC, and $1,700 to $1,800 for ETH, will mark this cycle’s bottom.
Additionally, Hayes pointed out that while the market appears to be in a state of flux, with BTC and ETH prices seesawing on a daily basis, he believes that a recovery is on the horizon. But again, he stressed that the market will begin to rally only when short-term traders — whom Hayes sees as “not mentally primed to ship more capital in at these “bargain” prices” – have left the market.
Hayes also reiterated his earlier projection that “ETH will be trading north of $10,000” by the end of the year. Still, he predicts that as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, this will lead markets into even greater volatility.
Price Action
At last check, Bitcoin prices were changing hands at around $30,300, up less than one percent on the day. Ether was trading at $1,820, down 1.40%.
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