Could the UK Become the Next Japan?

When the Bank of England cut interest rates by 150bp last week, I turned aggressively bullish EUR/GBP on the belief that interest rates are headed below 2%. The currency pair has now hit a record high as the market realizes that not only will UK interest rates fall below 2%, but could be headed to Japanese levels. Against the dollar, the British pound has fallen to fresh 6 year lows but the historically significant moves are in EUR/GBP.

According to the November Inflation Report, the monetary policy committee believes that inflation will fall below their 2 percent target with the potential of hitting 1 percent. With price pressures expected to ease significantly, the Bank of England sending a strong signal that interest rates will continue to come down.

There is talk that the recessionary conditions in the UK economy could turn the UK into the next Japan. Another 200bp of easing by the end of the first quarter has been priced into the markets, which would take interest rates to 1%. If the BoE chooses to overshoot monetary stimulus, UK interest rates could be at Japanese levels.

Mervyn KingMervyn King has become quite a maverick and we would not be surprised to see another large rate cut from the central bank.

When the dust settles, the UK’s aggressive monetary stimulus should turn their economy around faster than the Eurozone or the US, but in the meantime, more rate cuts mean more weakness for the British pound.

About Kathy Lien 235 Articles

Kathy Lien is an Internationally Published Author and Chief Strategist of, one of the world’s most popular online websites for currency research. Her trading books include the highly acclaimed, Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit form Market Swings (2005, Wiley); High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market E-Book (2006, Investopedia); and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game (2007, Wiley). As Chief Currency Strategist at FXCM, Kathy is responsible for providing research and analysis for DailyFX, the research arm of FXCM. She also co-edits the BK Forex Advisor, an Premium Service with Boris Schlossberg – one of the few investment advisory letters focusing strictly on the 2 Trillion/day FX market.

Kathy is also one of the authors of Investopedia’s Forex Education section and has written for, the Asia Times Online, Stocks & Commodities Magazine, MarketWatch, ActiveTrader Magazine, Currency Trader, Futures Magazine and SFO. She is frequently quoted by Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall street Journal, and the International Herald Tribune and has appeared on CNN, CNBC, CBS and Bloomberg Radio. She has also hosted trader chats on EliteTrader, eSignal and FXStreet, sharing her expertise in both technical and fundamental analysis.

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