Split Votes

If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time.­  If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.

There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.

Ohio:

State Population = 11.5mm – 3% of US total

State GDP = $500Bn – 3.7% of US total

Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I’m voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.

There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.

There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.

It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.

With all this in mind, my election forecast:

– Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).

– Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).

– Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)

– It will take two weeks +  to resolve the election of 2012.

If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country  falls off the fiscal cliff.

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